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What will happen in the years before Brexit is complete?

 
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OrangeBlossom



Joined: 30 Dec 2014
Posts: 43
Location: Tavira, Algarve, Portugal

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:08 pm    Post subject: What will happen in the years before Brexit is complete? Reply with quote

Just came across something in the Spain forum (sorry, Costa Brava I don't know how to pull across an attribution from another forum)
Quote:
Roll on the UK channels including the BBC allowing guests to log on to such as iPlayer with their UK 'licence number' as required by the EU.

Suppose this change is implemented in the two years or more before the UK stops paying membership. Do people think the BBC will stop us and our guests from accessing their iplayer accounts in EU countries once we've exited?

What about the roaming charges that are due to be dropped completely within the EU in June 2017. Will we and our UK guests get free phonecalls home for a year and then go back to having to pay for them again?

If the exit deal needs to go over every one of these little items, I can't see it being negotiated in a mere two years.

I went to an event in the UK at the start of the Referendum campaign where a bunch of academics picked apart the arguments on both sides. They estimated that it would take 10 years for extraction and renegotiation of trade deals to be complete.
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Casscat



Joined: 05 Jul 2014
Posts: 2661
Location: Andalucía

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going to widen this up to something a little more than access to iPlayer. The implications of the leave vote are colossal for owners of homes in continental EU countries. The housing market in several countries is already depressed (France, Spain in particular) and for them the main prospect of regeneration in the property market rested with British buyers. I don't know for sure, but I figure that the value of my Spanish property has already plunged and may be borderline worthless because it's all very well having something to sell but if there is no one willing to buy then you have a white elephant. I'm not worried with a capital 'W' because I have no intentions of selling, unless I am forced to....

For holiday home owners in Europe it is likely to be 'business as usual' even after the Brexit process is completed I am guessing as Brits will still take holidays even if they cannot pass through the 'EU' channel at passport control.

I know from feedback prior to the vote that the biggest concerns for my clients are:

- Right to remain;
- Freezing of the state pension;
- Entitlement to free healthcare.

To that I add my own, personal, selfish concern - job security. My job relies entirely upon a very specific market, and that market is British people retiring abroad. For me this is Spain, but for my company it is principally Spain, France and Portugal plus to a lesser extent Malta and Cyprus. All the plans and forecasts have been built on the expectation of a regular flow of people moving to our operational jurisdictions and I would be lying if I told you I was not worried about the impact of Brexit on our market. I know that if you want to live overseas you will do what you have to do to facilitate this, but the reason why so many Brits have chosen to retire to the continent is that up until now you can just pack a bag, book a flight and turn up. Many will still make this choice, but not the same volumes as before. Or am I being overly pessimistic?
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casasantoestevo



Joined: 06 Nov 2006
Posts: 3793
Location: O Saviñao, Galicia

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wait a minute are you asking us to use our crystal balls?


Everything is up in the air. The politicians have left the building.
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Casscat



Joined: 05 Jul 2014
Posts: 2661
Location: Andalucía

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

casasantoestevo wrote:
Wait a minute are you asking us to use our crystal balls?


I'm not sure if you are addressing OrangeBlossom or me but no, I'm asking for a discussion based on what is either known or can be reasonably anticipated - or indeed speculated upon because that is the nature of discussion.
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PW in Polemi



Joined: 21 Oct 2012
Posts: 1731
Location: A village in Paphos, Cyprus

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cyprus is relatively new to the EU table, so many British expats here have experience of how it all worked pre-EU. The assumption so far is that new agreements will have to be worked out regarding property ownership/employment/self employment/healthcare etc etc etc - eventually, and possibly in conjunction with EU as a whole, rather than individually country by country.

Don't forget, many of the EU countries have more of their nationals in UK than there are British expats in the EU country, so won't want to sign any agreements that would adversely affect their nationals. However, as I understand it, the major problem is that many of the EU nationals are WORKING in UK, paying tax and social security, contributing to the government's coffers rather than claiming benefits. With Cyprus in particular, most of the British expats are retired and therefore currently reliant on the UK to pay for their healthcare via a reciprocal EU agreement.
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casasantoestevo



Joined: 06 Nov 2006
Posts: 3793
Location: O Saviñao, Galicia

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

taking to the OP.
First point; to make, according to a quick poll on this forum (by the number of posts) there will be no exit. There is big hope of a second referendum.
Second point; It seems the Conservatives have run and hide themselves (both sides of the in/out) So there is know one to press the clause 50 button.
Then there now talk in the press that The Scottish will black the exit as they now feel that the referendum is against the Scotch agreement (or something like that)
So the whole subject is a mess and until we get moving (either in or out) then the UK/EU are stuck with nowhere to go.
All but one of the questions are really relevant the solution that is a Governmental mess.
You are correct about a discussion, however the Crystal Balls are working over time on other threads.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33e877be-ef63-11e5-aff5-19b4e253664a.html
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OrangeBlossom



Joined: 30 Dec 2014
Posts: 43
Location: Tavira, Algarve, Portugal

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:24 am    Post subject: Brexit and the interim Reply with quote

PW in Polemi wrote:

Don't forget, many of the EU countries have more of their nationals in UK than there are British expats in the EU country, so won't want to sign any agreements that would adversely affect their nationals. However, as I understand it, the major problem is that many of the EU nationals are WORKING in UK, paying tax and social security, contributing to the government's coffers rather than claiming benefits. With Cyprus in particular, most of the British expats are retired and therefore currently reliant on the UK to pay for their healthcare via a reciprocal EU agreement.

I agree PW and said something similar regarding the situation in Portugal in the thread Brexit and being a British expat in Europe
I don't know how many UK expats there are in Portugal but probably more than there are Portuguese expats in the UK and while some of the former are working, many are not. Even if Portugal wanted to, would it be able to afford to pay for the healthcare of many elderly expats if they stay in Portugal after Brexit? The same doesn't apply for the Portuguese in London; their concerns are different but they still feel threatened.
A look at their posts on fb shows that, as does a quoted tweet I found there. It translates as:
Quote:
Have any English tried to swim to Europe yet? Don’t let them in, we need to protect out jobs.

Obviously tongue in cheek, but I for one, feel for them as much as for the UK expats on the continent[/b]
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