A good year so far but will it continue?

[charles cawley]

So far, this year, the value of bookings taken has been up by 21% compared to the same period in 2014. These include bookings made in advance for months to come. Whenever a booking is taken, we note the value on a list and it is simple to add up the values for any period and contrast to the previous year(s).

But towards the end of May, despite the month being 20% up, things seemed to slow down. Early June has been less active than 2013 with fewer bookings taken. Short notice for smaller cottages held up the figures in May. This could be caused by a lack of availability due to previous strong months for booking agreements. It could be caused by a week or two of wet weather. I suspect that it is temporary, on the basis of demand so far this year.

We await July and August. These months can equal January and February for value of bookings taken. However, as we are inland, demand tends to be more exaggerated in good years and falls off more steeply in bad years. This could be because when 'bucket and spade' or seaside accommodation is full up, demand tends to back surge to inland destinations amplifying an already healthy market.

The way the demand behaves is interesting and quite complicated.

[greenbarn]

The way the demand behaves is interesting and quite complicated.

Hmmmm........... We're not in the "Bucket and Spade" market, nor the "Cabin with Legionella Tub" market and definitely not the "City Break" market, and I have to agree 100% with your statement Charles!
Now if I could only get to the point where I could understand it.....

[kg1]

Yes, I agree that bookings have slowed down in the last half on May. I need to fill the 2 cancelled weeks in September I still have

[Speyside Steve]

I work on the basis you can only sell a week once. If you book the same week in April one year and May the next this would skew your stats while the owner has exactly the same outcome. As long as overall occupancy is up on last year the timing of the booking is irrelevant. We have hardly any bookings at one of ours recently ... bad news? ... not really as we are fully booked til mid September and have Xmas & Hogmanay booked (which pays for winter fuel). We are 4 bookings down on the same stage last year but overall occupancy for the calendar year and revenue are up.

I don't think a spell of bad weather ever stopped people booking the Scottish Highlands where you should be able to market as the quattre saisons (in a day)!

[PW in Polemi]

I work on the basis you can only sell a week once. If you book the same week in April one year and May the next this would skew your stats while the owner has exactly the same outcome. As long as overall occupancy is up on last year the timing of the booking is irrelevant.

Only if you charge the same rate all year. If your peak season weeks are less booked and your off-peak weeks are booked, your annual income will be less if you have the same number of weeks booked.

[Speyside Steve]

Agreed!

[newtimber]

I work on the basis you can only sell a week once. If you book the same week in April one year and May the next this would skew your stats while the owner has exactly the same outcome. As long as overall occupancy is up on last year the timing of the booking is irrelevant.

Only if you charge the same rate all year. If your peak season weeks are less booked and your off-peak weeks are booked, your annual income will be less if you have the same number of weeks booked.

I think we're not talking about which week that's booked but WHEN that particular week is booked. If the owner only gets paid after the holiday, then when the booking was placed is irrelevant.

[PW in Polemi]

Oh yes, I see what you mean.
Blame the Sunday evening glass of vino

[charles cawley]

Update 12 June.

The value of bookings take in June for now and future months has taken a dip. Something similar did happen a few months ago and the month recovered to be +20%; every month this year has been in the positive with a remarkable February being around 100% up.

Lower occupancy cottages (sleep 4 and fewer) are the most numerous where larger cottages have slowed right down. This is a little unexpected but could well be just a passing mood in the market.