Lay My Hat

Although I am not personally affected nor any of my guests, I have been reading all the updates and thinking of the knock-on effects on our industry.

Item 1. Cancellations
This highlights the stupidity of accepting airbnb's approach to free cancellations up to the last minute. I'm particularly referring to those whose holidays are due to start in the next 2 weeks and had flights booked with Monarch.

Item 2. Travel insurance
I wonder if this will encourage more travellers to take up travel insurance? While the CAA will be repatriating all holidaymakers for free, they will NOT be reimbursing anyone for any extraneous costs; e.g. delayed flights and extra accommodation costs potentially incurred.

Item 3. If its too cheap to believe it's probably flawed.
Excuse the misappropriated catchphrase, but one may well wonder what the effect that this and the recent Ryanair fiasco will have on short haul travel and holidays in general?

Well, over to you. I am still sitting here in The Algarve in the sun musing and re-reading the T&Cs on my easyJet flight home next week.

Hi Richard,
One thing I will bet on, O'Leary is already signing up ex-Monarch pilots for Ruinair; I also wouldn't be surprised if he didn't have this in mind when he let his aircrew base run down, with a view to signing up new pilots cheaply when Monarch went down (which is no surprise to anyone, it's been pretty obvious for a while).

It's important to remember that only 5% of Monarch customers were on package hols and covered by ATOL, the others will have to find their own way home, Monarch having scrapped its general ATOL cover last December.

Memo - check your airline as closely as your accommodation.

Mols

I fear that along with the exchange rate, Brexit, terrorism, a few poor Summers etc. etc. that Ryanair and Monarch are another nail in our coffins.

Have already seen 3 posts on FB pages from people whose holidays have been cancelled due to Monarch, looking for accommodation.

Our current guests arrived via Monarch and are, fortunately for them, due to leave before the CAA "we'll get you home" deadline of 15 Oct.

As you would, we printed out the "what to do now" instructions for them (they are a little older than your normal tablet/smart phone toting guests) and OH dashed round to advise them of their options.

Oh yes, Mr Guest had known about this since earlier in the day, but was more concerned that they had failed to find the supermarket, even with my written directions - which must therefore be faulty and need to be re-written. They had spent most of the morning driving into and around the village - my instructions said "when you get to the junction with this village, continue down the hill". At no point did I mention turning off the main road and driving up into the village.

OH left them to sort out their return flight - how they'll manage when they seem incapable of reading simple instructions escapes my comprehension.

Moliere wrote:Hi Richard,
One thing I will bet on, O'Leary is already signing up ex-Monarch pilots for Ruinair;
Mols

Well apparently, all but one of Monarch's pilots are only licensed to fly Airbuses and Ruinair's are all 737's......

KathyG wrote:

Moliere wrote:Hi Richard,
One thing I will bet on, O'Leary is already signing up ex-Monarch pilots for Ruinair;
Mols

Well apparently, all but one of Monarch's pilots are only licensed to fly Airbuses and Ruinair's are all 737's......

That's odd, because recently I believe Monarch have been standardising their fleet on Boeings.
Anyway, industry gossip this morning has it that O'Leary has approached Monarch pilots, seemingly confirming my prediction; maybe he knows something we don't? I guess we'll see.

Mols

Monarch have/had one Boeing 737-800 with 45 Boeing 737 MAX on order for delivery in 2018. Their fleet is/was Airbus A320 & A321.

Ah, well they'll be looking for new employment too. I think there's quite a queue, so that shouldn't be too difficult.
Pity, maybe we could have done a deal vis-a-vis Bombardier!

Mols

So sad. It was a big employer in the town next to us and we travelled with Monarch many a time over the years. We just got back from Portugal a fortnight ago flying with them. Staff are already looking for work on our local job group. Lovely company and lovely staff. Ruinair by comparison. I know which company I'd rather had failed.

Agreed Nemo, & as always the staff get shafted.
Can we really be too surprised though? It feels sometimes as though we have become a 'cheap' obsessed world when it comes to the crunch. I've flown Monarch to Malaga a few times for relative peanuts & use Ruinair regularly from Stansted to Athens. Often it has cost less than a London train fare which makes me wonder how tight the margins must be to even get the plane off the ground, let alone run a sustainable business.

I think this is the writing on the wall - Brexit has had a huge impact on costs due to the fall of the pound against the Euro and dollar - and now we ae seeing the consequences of that - Monarch is not going to be the last company to fail for these reasons. We have become a greedy society wanting everything dirt cheap and in the end someone is going to have to pay the real price!

You have to accept that you get what you pay for. Nothing is cheap, it is just good value. Monach did not play the game. Used them a few times and all I can say is absolute brilliant. But actually that is not what I wanted. Back in 2002 I flew "Go" (now easyjet) to Porty, £80 return. That and probably that alone was why I bought a house in the Algarve. The more the budget airlines do to keep my ticket price down the more I will support them. You want to take hold luggage, good for you, but you will pay for it. Me wanting to keep the price of my ticket down I do not see as greed. If I want to fly upper economy, I will pay for it. Simple. As I see it anyway. Do not see greed in there ?? OK Ruinair is a different example. I fly EZJ from Southend to Faro, frequently, I will avoid Ruinair if at all possible but, that would mean the hussle and bussle of Stanstead. Not a good experience. We will be flying to Faro later this month, the return ticket will be cheaper that the train to London. I do not see that as greed but taking advantage of a situation. £90 for both return. If I want to buy a sarnie and a coffee at their price my choice. Generally I do cos I want that ticket price to stay low. Sitting in a cramped seat for 2 +hours reading a book, heaven at that price.Just me but that comment greed I took exception to.

Just as I see it.

Whilst clearly Brexit plays a role, the CEO also blamed terrorism.

In a letter to staff, Andrew Swaffield said the airline had this year carried 14% more passengers than the previous year, for £100m less revenue.
"We had a turnaround year in 2015. But since them, outside influences have badly affected us. Since 2015 we’ve seen yields collapse by a quarter, resulting in £160m less revenue.

This has especially affected Spain and Portugal which is 80% of our business.... The root cause is the closure, due to terrorism, of Sharm-El-Sheikh and Tunisia and the decimation of Turkey,” he wrote.

Nemo wrote:Whilst clearly Brexit plays a role, the CEO also blamed terrorism.

In a letter to staff, Andrew Swaffield said the airline had this year carried 14% more passengers than the previous year, for £100m less revenue.
"We had a turnaround year in 2015. But since them, outside influences have badly affected us. Since 2015 we’ve seen yields collapse by a quarter, resulting in £160m less revenue.

This has especially affected Spain and Portugal which is 80% of our business.... The root cause is the closure, due to terrorism, of Sharm-El-Sheikh and Tunisia and the decimation of Turkey,” he wrote.

More passengers for less revenue neatly sums it up Nemo. Too easy & trendy to blame it all on the dreaded B word, & as the letter indicates bigger & far worse factors (still) at play.

I'd generally also concur with Rogthedodge's comment.
I take Ruinair for what it is, a glorified flying bus' It gets me from A to B without major hassle generally & a lot of the well publicised issues are avoidable for the flying public. You need a hold bag - pay for it. Pick seats together - pay for it. Something to eat/drink - you get the picture. Turn up expecting champagne service on a beer budget or something for nothing & you're gonna be disappointed. No surprises there, it's all in black & white when you buy a ticket.
But where ever cheaper fares leave such fine operational margins for the budget carriers it must be a tightrope walk that a few too many unsold seats could unsettle. For me, if it was a choice between paying a little extra for the long term or seeing more go under like Monarch I'd do so.